Jackson Hole Tourism Forecast
Forecasting for Business Success / Measuring Performance
Current DestiMetrics Reports
AUGUST MARKET OVERVIEW: Though the formal end of the summer season isn’t until October 31, the peak months came to a close with the end of August and the Labor Day weekend (not included in this data). As in recent months, financial and consumer markets were very strong during this period. The Dow Jones, though relatively flat, remained near record territory at the end of August, despite downward pressure from global markets and a disruptive and unique Presidential election campaign. Employers added 151,000 new jobs during the month, bringing the 3-month total to 697,000 jobs added and boosting consumer confidence above the 100-point mark for the first time since September 2015. All of this is reflected in excellent performance numbers in the mountain travel industry. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for August was up 2.2 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was also up 6.8 percent for the month. Bookings taken in August for arrival in August was down -3.7 percent (not shown). Locally, Jackson Hole occupancy was up 1.9 percent in August versus 2015, accompanied by an increase in rate of 5.8 percent. Jackson Hole occupancy for the past six months (March - August) increased 5.7 percent compared to the same period last year, while rate also increased 6.4 percent. Bookings taken in August for arrival in August were down -15.3 percent compared to August 2015 (not shown).
AUGUST LOOKING FORWARD: We are entering the traditional “shoulder” of the summer season on an economic high-note, with consumer and financial markets in good condition despite many external, and some internal, downward forces. The domestic financial market roll of recent months is clearly sustainable based on their performance through the Brexit vote as well as the China downturn, and employers seem committed to growing the number of jobs at break-neck pace. However, in the months ahead we should be wary of a few factors that may take some momentum out of both markets. Though analysts are now downplaying the possibility, interest rate hikes may be coming from the Federal Reserve. The Presidential election is a contentious one and neither major party candidate is popular overall, so some instability may follow. And, lastly, there remains the impact of the Brexit vote, which will be long-term and negative, though what overall impact it will have against the US domestic strength is hard to say. In the face of it all is the mountain traveler, resilient and committed. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (September – February) is up 11.0 percent, while rate is also up 2.4 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during August for arrival August - January was up 12.0 percent compared to the same period in 2015. Locally, Jackson Hole on-the-books Occupancy for September 2016 is up 11.7 percent compared to 2015, accompanied by an increase in rate of 8.9 percent. Occupancy on-the-books for the upcoming six months (September -February) is up 18.8 percent compared to the same period last year, with an increase in rate of 6.3 percent. Jackson Hole bookings taken in August for arrival August - January are up 13.3 percent compared to the same period last year with increases in four of the six months within scope.
How to Read the DestiMetrics Lodging Barometer / 45-Day Retail Report
The DestiMetrics reports provide a wealth of data in one document. Need help understanding how the graphs can predict occupancy? Download the following pdf handout: How To Read the DestiMetrics 45-Day Retail Report.
An Eye on the Economy
The Jackson Hole Economic Dashboard is compiled by the Jackson Hole Chamber of Commerce each month so that our Members can be aware of the numbers that effect business in Jackson Hole.
Jackson Hole Economic Dashboard
- Download the complete Economic Indicators Published September 9, 2016: Click Here
- Downlaod the updated Economic Dashboard Published September 16, 2016: Click Here
Jackson Hole Economic Dashboard Summary, September 2016
- Teton County Lodging Tax for June 2016 was up by 16% as compared to June 2015 and up 25% as compared to June 2014.
- Sales & Use Tax Income for Teton County for July 2016 was up by 12% as compared to 2015 and up 30% as compared to July 2014. Reference.
- Unemployment rate for July 2016 was down by .10% as compared to July 2015 and down .70% as compared to July 2014.
- Visitation at Grand Teton National Park (GTNP) was down by 26% for August 2016 as compared to August 2015 and up 4% as compared to August 2014. GTNP visitation for January through August 2016 was down by 21% and up 10% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
- Visitation at Yellowstone National Park (YNP) was down by 2% for August 2016 as compared to August 2015 and up 9% as compared to August 2014. YNP visitation for January through August 2016 was up by 4% and up 20% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
- Visitation at the Jackson Hole & Greater Yellowstone Visitor Center (JH & GY VC) for August 2016 was up by 7% as compared to August 2015 and up 4% as compared to August 2014. JH & GY VC visitation for January through August 2016 was up by 5% and up 13% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
- Jackson Hole Airport Enplanements for August 2016 was unavailable at this time.
- DestiMetrics Occupancy for August 2016 was unavailable at this time.
- Business Licenses Issued were up by 71% as compared to August 2015 and were up 283% as compared to August 2014. Business Licenses Issued for January through August 2016 were up by 167% and up 190% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
- Real Estate sales were down by 23% (# of sales) and down 15% ($ volume) for the 1st quarter of 2016 as compared to the 1st quarter of 2015, and down by 13% (# of sales) and up 18% ($ volume) as compared to the 1st quarter of 2015.
- Construction permits for August 2016 were up by 4% as compared to August 2015 and up by 45% as compared to August 2014. Construction permits for January through August 2016 were up by 65% and up 87% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
- Residential construction total value for August 2016 was up by 32% as compared to August 2015 and up 159% as compared to August 2014. Residential construction total value for January through August 2016 was up by 68% and up 159% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
- Commercial construction total value for August 2016 was $58,000 as compared $0 in August 2015 and down 80% as compared to August 2014. Commercial construction total value for January through August 2016 was up by 220% and up 295% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
Wyoming Office of Tourism Resources
Visitation to Grand Teton National Park Generates Over 728 Million in Economic Benefit to Local Communities
April 21, 2016 - Visitors to Grand Teton National Park spent an estimated $560 million in local gateway communities last year. The ripple effects of that spending had a cumulative benefit to the local economy of over $728 million and supported 8,862 jobs in nearby communities such as Jackson, Teton Village, and Dubois, Wyoming as well as Victor and Driggs, Idaho. As it did in 2014, Grand Teton ranked among the top five national park areas in terms of economic benefit along with Blue Ridge Parkway, Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Grand Canyon National Park, and Denali National Park & Preserve. For complete information, please click here.
Jackson Hole Conservation Alliance Effective Population Study
Summer 2013 - An Update of the 1993 Study Conducted by Summit Management Consulting on behalf of the Town of Jackson and Teton County, Wyoming. Download the PDF. The report defines Effective Population: "Effective population is defined as the population where people are found at a given point in time, as opposed to counting them only where they reside. Determining the effective population is essential for understanding the cumulative economic, social, and environmental impacts residents, workers, and visitors alike have on the community. Using the estimates from the effective population can help town and county staff, elected officials, and community organizations guide policies, revise land development regulations, and provide levels of service appropriate to the actual human population and ecosystem of Teton County."