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Jackson Hole Chamber of Commerce

Jackson Hole Tourism Forecast

Forecasting for Business Success / Measuring Performance



 

Current DestiMetrics Reports

November 15, 2016 - Retail Report

October 31, 2016 - Executive Summary

October 31, 2016 - Retail Report

October 15, 2016 - Retail Report

OCTOBER MARKET OVERVIEW: The month of October finished up economically much as it started, with financial markets losing a small amount of ground over the course of the month but remaining strong. The Dow Jones lost 0.9 percent in October but remains up 2.4 percent from where it was last year and was still above the 18,000-point mark on October 31. Employers picked up the pace slightly on job creation, adding 161,000 new jobs, and increased wages by the largest year-over-year amount (2.8 percent) since the recession began. Thought this is good news overall for consumers, consumer confidence took a downturn from over 102 points to 98.6 points, the first dip below 100 since July. Consumers were feeling a bit anxious about long-term business prospects. Though there has been a fundamental shift nationally since October 31, with a surprise election result, the data reflect pre-election behavior, and October finished strong in most mountain destination communities, sealing the deal on a fifth consecutive record summer season. Based on an aggregate data from all DestiMetrics destinations, occupancy for October was up 1.2 percent versus the same time last year, while rate was also up 7.2 percent for the month. Bookings taken in October for arrival in October was down -5.3 percent (not shown). Locally, Jackson Hole occupancy was up 7.0 percent in October versus 2015, accompanied by an increase in rate of 17.2 percent. Jackson Hole occupancy for the past six months (May - October) increased 5.4 percent compared to the same period last year, while rate also increased 8.1 percent. Bookings taken in October for arrival in October were down -23.5 percent compared to October 2015 (not shown).

OCTOBER LOOKING FORWARD: Though the data for this report pre-date the election results, it’s worth noting that we now head into winter on a wave of uncertainty following the close of a combative Presidential election and an outcome that has surprised even the parties. While first-term presidencies are typically associated with slower economic growth, analysts are concerned with the lack of direction indicated by the new administration, so we’ll have to watch the transition unfold and then check our November 30th data to see what impact, if any, the results have on bookings. In the meantime, we head into the Holiday season knowing that this is a time of job creation – albeit often temporary – and economic growth, as well as the true beginning of the ski season as snow starts to fall. Employers are expected to add 750,000 new jobs over the coming two months and many are expecting those to convert to full-time. Combined with the recent increase in average wages, this should trickle down nicely to the consumer side of the marketplace. Clearly snow equity from last year, strong momentum out of the summer months and healthy economic conditions are spurring early season strength. Based on the aggregate of DestiMetrics industry-wide data, on-the-books aggregate occupancy for all destinations for the upcoming six months (November-April) is up 6.6 percent, while rate is also up 7.5 percent from the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during October for arrival October-April was up 1.7 percent compared to the same period in 2015. Locally, Jackson Hole on-the-books Occupancy for November 2016 is down -32.2 percent compared to 2015, accompanied by an increase in rate of 47.0 percent. Occupancy on-the-books for the upcoming six months (November - March) is up 12.6 percent compared to the same period last year, with an increase in rate of 10.5 percent. Jackson Hole bookings taken in October for arrival October-March are down -12.6 percent compared to the same period last year with increases in three of the six months within scope.

How to Read the DestiMetrics Lodging Barometer / 45-Day Retail Report

The DestiMetrics reports provide a wealth of data in one document. Need help understanding how the graphs can predict occupancy? Download the following pdf handout: How To Read the DestiMetrics 45-Day Retail Report.


An Eye on the Economy

The Jackson Hole Economic Dashboard is compiled by the Jackson Hole Chamber of Commerce each month so that our Members can be aware of the numbers that effect business in Jackson Hole.

Jackson Hole Economic Dashboard

  • Download the Complete Economic Indicators Published November 11, 2016: Click Here
  • Download the UPDATED  Economic Dashboard Published November 11, 2016: Click Here

 Jackson Hole Economic Dashboard Summary, November 2016

  • Teton County Lodging Tax for August 2016 was up by 6% as compared to August 2015 and up 16% as compared to August 2014.
  • Sales & Use Tax Income for Teton County for September 2016 was up by 8% as compared to 2015 and up 2% as compared to September 2014. Reference revenue.wyo.gov.
  • Unemployment rate for September 2016 was down by .30% as compared to September 2015 and down .90% as compared to September 2014.
  • Visitation at Grand Teton National Park (GTNP) was down by 2% for October 2016 as compared to October 2015 and up 26% as compared to October 2014. GTNP visitation for January through October 2016 was up by 4% and up 18% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
  • Visitation at Yellowstone National Park (YNP) was down by 4% for October 2016 as compared to October 2015 and up 24% as compared to October 2014. YNP visitation for January through October 2016 was up by 4% and up 21% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
  •  Visitation at the Jackson Hole & Greater Yellowstone Visitor Center (JH & GY VC) for October 2016 was up by 10% as compared to October 2015 and up 22% as compared to October 2014.  JH & GY VC visitation for January through October 2016 was up by 5% and up 13% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
  • Jackson Hole Airport Enplanements for October 2016 were up by 18% as compared to October 2015 and up 26% as compared to October 2014.  Jackson Hole Airport Enplanements for January through October 2016 were up by 11% and up 10% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
  • DestiMetrics Occupancy and ADR for October 2016 is unavailable at this time.
  • Business Licenses Issued were up by 171% as compared to October 2015 and were up 137% as compared to October 2014. Business Licenses Issued for January through October 2016 were up by 45% and up 18% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
  • Real Estate sales were down by 10% (# of sales) and down 15% ($ volume) for the 3rd quarter of 2016 as compared to the 3rd quarter of 2015, and up by 5% (# of sales) and up 11% ($ volume) as compared to the 3rd quarter of 2015.
  • Construction permits for October 2016 were up by 42% as compared to October 2015 and up by 36% as compared to October 2014. Construction permits for January through October 2016 were up by 62% and up 70% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
  • Residential construction total value for October 2016 was up by 188% as compared to October 2015 and up 288% as compared to October 2014.
  • Residential construction total value for January through October 2016 was up by 76% and up 150% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
  • Commercial construction total value for October 2016 was up by 52% as compared to October 2015 and up 38% as compared to October 2014.
  • Commercial construction total value for January through October 2016 was up by 187% and up 163% as compared to the same time periods in 2015 and 2014, respectively.

Wyoming Office of Tourism Resources

Wyoming Travel Impacts 2000-2015: Click here.
2015 Overnight Visitor Profile Research: Click here.


Visitation to Grand Teton National Park Generates Over 728 Million in Economic Benefit to Local Communities

April 21, 2016 - Visitors to Grand Teton National Park spent an estimated $560 million in local gateway communities last year. The ripple effects of that spending had a cumulative benefit to the local economy of over $728 million and supported 8,862 jobs in nearby communities such as Jackson, Teton Village, and Dubois, Wyoming as well as Victor and Driggs, Idaho. As it did in 2014, Grand Teton ranked among the top five national park areas in terms of economic benefit along with Blue Ridge Parkway, Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Grand Canyon National Park, and Denali National Park & Preserve. For complete information, please click here.


Jackson Hole Conservation Alliance Effective Population Study

Summer 2013 - An Update of the 1993 Study Conducted by Summit Management Consulting on behalf of the Town of Jackson and Teton County, Wyoming. Download the PDF. The report defines Effective Population: "Effective population is defined as the population where people are found at a given point in time, as opposed to counting them only where they reside. Determining the effective population is essential for understanding the cumulative economic, social, and environmental impacts residents, workers, and visitors alike have on the community. Using the estimates from the effective population can help town and county staff, elected officials, and community organizations guide policies, revise land development regulations, and provide levels of service appropriate to the actual human population and ecosystem of Teton County."


Other Helpful Resources